Manual – Poker Bankroll Tracker App

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Variance Calculation

The variance calculator tells you the expected variance based on your last cash game sessions. The white line shows your expected value (EV) in bb per 100 hands. The app takes your EV, your standard deviation (SD) and calculates 20 cases and keep the best and the worst case.

The SD is an indicator how swingy your play is. For example: A supermarket sells nuts at 1000 per pack and you have bought 5 packs. You open the packs and count the nuts. 1st pack contains 1005 nuts = +5, 2nd is 998 = -2, 3rd is -4, 4th is +3 and the 5th is +1. The deviations are 5, 2, 4, 3, 1 and it doesn’t matter if it’s plus or minus. The standard deviation is (5+2+4+3+1)/5 = 3. If you buy a pack of nuts, you have to expect a deviation of 3 nuts per pack. If you have a winrate of +10bb per 100 hands and a SD of 20bb you have to expect a result between -10bb to +30bb per 100 hands for your next sessions.